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Trump-Harris face-off: Do presidential debates change voter preferences?

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Why do presidential debates matter? We look at history and data to find out.

United States Vice President and Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris will face off against former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump for their first — and potentially only — presidential debate before November’s election. The two have never met before. 

Trump had previously debated President Joe Biden on June 27. Biden subsequently dropped out of the race in July and was replaced by Harris.

The Trump-Harris debate, hosted by ABC News, will take place at 9pm US eastern time on Tuesday (01:00 GMT on Wednesday) at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

The latest polling data show the two main candidates in the presidential race locked in a near dead heat both nationally and in a series of swing states expected to determine the outcome of the November 5 election.

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Many pundits have suggested Tuesday’s debate could be a defining moment in the campaign as tens of millions of US voters tune in to watch the candidates field questions and trade barbs. But with less than two months to go until election day, could the debate shift voter perceptions of the two candidates?

Here’s what decades of presidential debates, polling and research tell us:

Do presidential debates change election results?

On the whole, research suggests the answer is mostly no.

Harvard Business School Associate Professor Vincent Pons and Assistant Professor Caroline Le Pennec-Caldichoury of the University of California at Berkeley evaluated pre- and postelection surveys in 10 countries, including the US, the United Kingdom, Germany and Canada, from 1952 — the year of the first televised presidential debate in the US — to 2017.

The results showed that televised debates did not significantly impact voter choice.

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“There’s this perception that debates are this great democratic tool where voters can find out what candidates stand for and how good they really are,” Pons was quoted in a 2019 article by the Harvard Business School as saying.  “But we find that debates don’t have any effect on any group of voters.”

An analysis published in 2013 by University of Missouri communication Professors Mitchell McKinney and Benjamin Warner considered survey responses by undergraduate students from universities throughout the US from 2000 to 2012.

They too found that general election debates had very little impact on candidate preference with the candidate choice remaining unchanged for 86.3 percent of respondents before and after viewing the debate. 

Watching the debate helped 7 percent of respondents who had not decided who to vote for to make a decision. Only 3.5 percent of respondents switched from one candidate to another.

Still, there have been occasions when debates have boosted the chances of specific candidates. Ask Barack Obama.

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The Obama boom

n the 2008 presidential race, Obama was able to achieve a significant lead days after the first debate, which took place on September 26, 2008.

While Obama initially led in the polls, Republican competitor John McCain had caught up, and the two senators were neck and neck from September 9 to 14, according to the Pew Research Center. Obama was at 46 percent, compared with McCain’s 44.

From September 27 to 29, however, Obama surged to 49 percent, and McCain fell to 42 percent.

But what do more recent election cycles tell us about the impact of presidential debates on voter choices?

2020 presidential debates: Almost no change

Trump and Biden locked horns in two debates before the most recent presidential election, facing off on September 29 and October 22, 2020.

A poll conducted by New Jersey-based Monmouth University before the first debate showed 87 percent of voters surveyed said the debate was not likely to impact their vote.

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The Monmouth survey proved right. Voting analysis platform FiveThirtyEight’s average of 2020 presidential election polls showed that on September 28, 2020, Biden was at 50.1 percent and Trump was at 43.2 percent. By September 30, Biden was at 50.5 and Trump was at 42.9.

Similarly, the polling numbers for the two candidates barely changed before and after the second debate.

Biden won the 2020 election with 51.3 percent of the national popular vote and 306 Electoral College votes.

What the 2016 presidential debates tell us

Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton and Trump squared off in three heated debates eight years ago.

September 26, 2016, was the first debate. The two candidates sparred over everything from the racial divide in the US to Trump’s disparaging comments about a beauty pageant winner. Clinton was on the offensive, Trump defensive.

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Most news reports the day after suggested that Clinton had dominated the debate. But according to FiveThirtyEight’s poll average of 2016, that performance barely moved the needle. Clinton was at 42.4 percent while Trump was at 40.5 percent on September 25. By September 27, Clinton was at 42.5 compared with Trump’s 41 percent.

By October 8, 2016, the gap between the two had grown: Clinton was at 44.8 percent and Trump was at 39.8. The second debate took place on October 9, but neither that debate nor the third one on October 19 changed polling numbers much.

On October 18, Clinton was at 45.5 percent and Trump was at 38.9 percent. By October 21, Clinton’s numbers were unchanged while Trump was at 39.1 percent. Opinion polls showed the race tightening marginally in the final days of the election with Clinton still leading comfortably.

On election day — November 8 — Clinton secured 48 percent of the popular vote compared with Trump’s 46 percent, but Trump won the decisive vote in the Electoral College under the indirect presidential election system in the US.

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Trump listens as Clinton answers a question from the audience during their presidential town hall debate at Washington University in St Louis, Missouri, on October 9, 2016 [Rick Wilking/Reuters]

What about the 2024 debates?

Heading into the debate on June 27, Biden was trailing Trump by a small margin, according to polling averages compiled by FiveThirtyEight.

However, Biden was widely criticised for his performance in the debate. He seemed lost, mumbled and was incoherent at times. From June 27 to July 9, Trump gained about 2 percentage points and was at 42.1 percent support, compared with Biden’s 39.9 percent.

Since Harris became the Democratic candidate, however, the race has changed dramatically.

On July 24, three days after Biden dropped out of the race, Harris was at 44.9 percent support while Trump was at 44. The gap has grown since then. As of Monday, Harris was at 47.2 percent, compared with Trump’s 44.3 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight average.

Do presidential debates matter?

A large body of research suggests that a key reason presidential debates usually don’t influence voters too much is because most voters who tune in to these televised performances are already committed to a candidate.

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However, they can help undecided voters form a preference. And when a candidate is relatively unknown, as was the case with Obama in 2008 or Democrat John F Kennedy in 1960, presidential debates can influence how a candidate is perceived by voters.

In 1960, Kennedy and Republican Richard Nixon took part in four presidential debates. Nixon was the vice president under outgoing President Dwight Eisenhower. A widely held narrative that emerged from those debates suggests that the younger, more energetic Kennedy gained popularity over Nixon among those who watched the debates on television, even though Nixon fared better among voters who listened on the radio. An analysis by researchers at Purdue University in Indiana suggests that one reason for this was that Kennedy “appeared better on television than Nixon”.

Senator John F Kennedy, left, and Vice President Richard Nixon, right, prepare to begin their presidential debate in Chicago, Illinois, on September 26, 1960 [John F Kennedy Library Foundation/US National Archives/Handout via Reuters]

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US election live: Latest polls show Harris, Trump tied on election eve

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Moderator Tom Tillotson and Les Otten vote during the 2024 U.S. presidential election on Election Day in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, U.S., November 5

Video Duration 02 minutes 56 seconds02:56

By Federica Marsi

Published On 5 Nov 20245 Nov 2024

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  • After a heated presidential campaign, millions of voters across the United States are gearing up to cast their ballots on Election Day.
  • Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are going head-to-head in a race that remains too close to call.
  • What time do polls close in your state on Election Day in the US?Millions of Americans are set to cast their ballots after a heated presidential election campaign.Tuesday is the final day to cast a ballot, and below, we’ve assembled a broad overview of when polling stations close in each of the 50 states, which span six time zones. Check it out here.Click here to share on social media
  • 20m ago (09:20 GMT)‘I Voted’ stickers are running their own contestIn Georgia, it’s adorned with a peach. In the seaside city of San Francisco, it boasts sea lions and the Golden Gate Bridge.The “I Voted” sticker is the traditional prize of casting a ballot on Election Day – and different jurisdictions around the US use their versions to show off their local pride.Some areas even encourage submissions from residents. A fan favourite this year came from Grosse Pointe Farms, Michigan, where 12-year-old Jane Hynous submitted a drawing to a local “I Voted” sticker competition – and came away victorious.Her entry? A deranged werewolf, ripping its shirt in two: a perfect portrait of the pathos of election season.A volunteer helps cut "I Voted" stickers at the Boyle Heights Senior Center on Monday, Nov. 4A volunteer helps cut “I Voted” stickers at the Boyle Heights Senior Center on Monday, in Los Angeles [Damian Dovarganes/AP Photo]Click here to share on social media
  • 30m ago (09:10 GMT)AnalysisKey economic data that landed in the final days of the raceThe monthly jobs report, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, showed that the economy added about 12,000 jobs in October. In September, by comparison, the economy added about 223,000 jobs.For Harris, who is rated as less competent than Trump to handle the economy in most polls, the report could have hardly arrived at a worse time. Unsurprisingly, the Trump campaign held up the report as evidence of economic mismanagement by the Biden-Harris administration, branding the jobs figure a “catastrophe”.The picture, however, is complicated by the fact that the period overlapped with hurricanes Helene and Milton and strike action by more than 30,000 Boeing employees.Even so, the figure fell well short of expectations: economists polled by Dow Jones, who took into account the hurricanes and the strike, had predicted 100,000 jobs. Still, there are other strong economic metrics to consider, too, including 2.8 percent growth in the third quarter.Click here to share on social media
  • 40m ago (09:00 GMT)Harris’s Indian ancestral village is praying for her victoryResidents of the tiny South Indian village of Thulasendrapuram in Tamil Nadu have gathered to pray for Harris, who could become the first United States leader with South Asian roots.Harris’s maternal grandfather was born in the village, about 350 kilometres (217 miles) from the southern coastal city of Chennai, more than 100 years ago. As an adult, he moved to Chennai, where he worked as a high-ranking government official until his retirement.Harris has never visited Thulasendrapuram and she has no living relatives in the village, but people here still venerate the family that made it big in the US.“Our village ancestors’ granddaughter is running as a US presidential candidate. Her victory will be happy news for every one of us,” M Natarajan, the temple priest, told The Associated Press.Natarajan led prayers in front of the image of the Hindu deity Ayyanar, a form of Lord Shiva. “Our deity is a very powerful God. If we pray well to him, he will make her victorious,” he said.Villagers participate in the special prayers for the victory of Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala HarrisVillagers participate in special prayers for the victory of the Democratic presidential nominee in Thulasendrapuram, an ancestral village of Harris, in Tamil Nadu state, India [Aijaz Rahi/AP]Click here to share on social media
  • 50m ago (08:50 GMT)Texas, Missouri judges deny requests to block Justice Department from sending poll monitorsUS judges have denied requests from the Republican-led states of Missouri and Texas to block the federal government from sending lawyers to their states on Election Day to monitor compliance with federal voting rights laws.Both states are among the 27 that the US Justice Department said it would send monitoring staff to at voting locations, as it has done regularly during national elections.Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton had said sending monitors “infringes on States’ constitutional authority to run free and fair elections”.Trump continues to falsely claim that his 2020 defeat was the result of widespread fraud. He has urged his supporters to turn out at polling locations to watch for suspected fraud.Click here to share on social media
  • 1h ago (08:40 GMT)It’s voting day. Here’s what polls say, what Harris and Trump are up toAccording to FiveThirtyEight’s daily tracker, Harris has a 1.2-point lead over Trump nationally, a margin that has remained fairly static in recent days, though it has shrunk compared with a month ago.In swing states, Harris has a one-point advantage in Michigan and Wisconsin, according to the same tracker.Harris spent the final day campaigning in Pennsylvania. The Democratic candidate started with an event in Scranton, the hometown of President Joe Biden.Trump continued his campaign with a whirlwind tour through North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan.In his first stop at Raleigh, North Carolina, the Republican candidate claimed a decisive advantage in the presidential race. He then went to Reading, Pennsylvania, where he again suggested that he would carry out mass deportations of immigrants.Read our full story here.Click here to share on social media
  • 1h ago (08:30 GMT)US presidential candidates end their final campaign ralliesDemocratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S., November 4Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on Monday [Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters]Supporters of Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris attend a campaign rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S., November 4Supporters of Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris attend a campaign rally in Philadelphia [Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters]Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump reacts during his campaign rally at Van Andel Arena in Grand Rapids, Michigan, U.S., November 5Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump reacts during his campaign rally at Van Andel Arena in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on Tuesday [Brian Snyder/Reuters]Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump dances at a campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, U.S., November 5Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump dances at a campaign rally in Grand Rapids [Carlos Osorio/Reuters]Click here to share on social media
  • 1h ago (08:25 GMT)What did Harris say in her closing argument in Pennsylvania?Harris ended her campaign in Philadelphia, at the art museum steps made famous in the movie Rocky, and was introduced by Oprah Winfrey and Lady Gaga.“The momentum is on our side,” she said, focusing on optimism about the future and never mentioning Trump by name.She doubled down on the economy, a key issue for US voters grappling with unemployment and inflation, and outlined her plan to “build an economy where we bring down the cost of living”.Among the measures she intends to implement, she listed a ban on corporate price gouging on groceries; cutting taxes for workers, middle-class families and small businesses; and lowering healthcare costs, including the cost of home care for seniors.US producer and actress Oprah Winfrey holds up Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris's hand as she arrives on stage during a campaign rally on the Benjamin Franklin Parkway in PhiladelphiaOprah Winfrey introduces US Vice President Kamala Harris in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on the eve of Election Day [Angela Weiss/ AFP]Click here to share on social media
  • Sign up for Al JazeeraAmericas Coverage NewsletterUS politics, Canada’s multiculturalism, South America’s geopolitical rise—we bring you the stories that matter.SubscribeBy signing up, you agree to our Privacy Policyprotected by reCAPTCHA
  • 1h ago (08:24 GMT)A recap of the latest developmentsLet’s bring you up to speed:
    • Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump have made their final appeals to American voters ahead of Election Day on Tuesday.
    • Harris has stressed she intends to be a “president for all” at her closing campaign rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania while Trump pledges to lead the US to “new heights of glory” at an event in Grand Rapids, Michigan.
    • Polls continue to show the candidates locked in a close battle for the White House, with the race likely to come down to key swing states.
    • More than 82 million Americans have voted ahead of Election Day, according to a tally by the University of Florida’s Election Lab.
    Click here to share on social media
  • 1h ago (08:24 GMT)Photos: Harris and Trump deliver final pleas to US votersharris at rallyHarris speaks during a rally in Pennsylvania, November 4 [Susan Walsh/AP Photo]trump at rallyTrump dances at an event in Pennsylvania, November 4 [Chris Szagola/AP Photo]Trump supporters[Jeenah Moon/Reuters]Harris supporters in PhiladelphiaHarris supporters ahead of her speech in Philadelphia [Hannah McKay/Reuters]Click here to share on social media
  • 1h ago (08:24 GMT)Where do Harris, Trump stand on key issues?Harris and Trump have spent months pitching their different visions for the country.The presidential candidates advocated to solve the country’s problems, diverging on most of the policies and only agreeing on some.From the economy to foreign policy, immigration, abortion and crime, we’ve taken a closer look at their campaign platforms and promises.Have a look at their positions on the key issues in our story, here.https://imasdk.googleapis.com/js/core/bridge3.675.2_en.html#goog_1829997514Play VideoVideo Duration 27 minutes 00 seconds27:00How will domestic issues shape the US election?Click here to share on social media
  • 1h ago (08:23 GMT)ExplainerHow will US Election Day unfold?Millions of Americans will head to polling booths to cast their ballots in the US presidential election.Voters will also elect 34 US senators (out of 100) and all 435 members for the US House of Representatives, among other posts that are up for grabs.With the country stretching across six time zones, Election Day is a massive undertaking – and voting will begin as early as 5am EST (10:00 GMT) and go as late as 1am (06:00 GMT) on Wednesday.Check out our hour-by-hour breakdown of how Election Day will unfold, in our explainer, here.Click here to share on social media
  • 1h ago (08:23 GMT)What did Trump say in his closing argument in Michigan?Trump showed up more than 90 minutes after he was scheduled to begin his remarks in Grand Rapids, Michigan. An old clip of Trump shaving the head of disgraced former WWE CEO and longtime associate Vince McMahon on a wrestling show was played to entertain the crowd.He started the rally by recounting his unlikely victory in 2016 and then predicted the greatest victory ‘in the history of our country’. He even claimed that God had saved him from an assassination attempt during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania in July so that he could “save America.”He again linked immigration to a high crime rate, despite data showing the opposite, blending false claims about voter fraud with warnings about migrants committing crimes and promises to revitalise the United States.“Over the past four years, Americans have suffered one catastrophic failure, betrayal and humiliation after another,” Trump said. He added that “we do not have to settle for weakness, incompetence, decline, and decay.”Click here to share on social media
  • 1h ago (08:18 GMT)Welcome to our live coverageIt’s officially Election Day in the United States!Millions of Americans will head to the polls on November 5 to cast their ballots after a heated presidential election campaign.Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are locked in a close fight, with recent polls showing the race remains too close to call nationally and in key battleground states.Stay with Al Jazeera’s Live team as we bring you the latest developments, analyses and reactions from across the US.Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during his final campaign rally at Van Andel Arena in Grand Rapids, Michigan in the early hours of November 5Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during his final campaign rally at Van Andel Arena in Grand Rapids, Michigan in the early hours of Tuesday [Jeff Kowalsky/AFP]Click here to share on social media

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA AND NEWS AGENCIES

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Elon Musk’s $1m US voter giveaway to continue, Pennsylvania judge rules

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The state’s top Democratic legal official says the giveaway in states likely to decide the US election is a ‘scam’.

Elon Musk is one of Trump's most important supporters
Elon Musk has become one of Trump’s most important supporters [Evan Vucci/AP Photo]

Published On 5 Nov 20245 Nov 2024

A $1m-a-day voter sweepstakes operated by a political group established by billionaire Elon Musk can continue, a judge in the state of Pennsylvania has ruled.

Last month, the world’s richest man announced he would start the giveaway in seven battleground states likely to decide the outcome of the United States 2024 election.

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Musk’s giveaway has widely been seen by many as an unsubtle attempt to secure extra votes for Republican candidate Donald Trump, who Musk has thrown his vocal and financial support behind.

Musk has given $75m to America PAC, a political action committee that has been funding various Republican candidates, including former President Trump.

Winners ‘not chosen  by chance’

The Tesla CEO has already gifted $16m to registered swing-state voters who qualified for the giveaway by signing his political petition.

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Pennsylvania‘s Common Pleas Court Judge Angelo Foglietta’s decision on Monday came after a surprising day of testimony in a state court in which Musk’s aides acknowledged hand-picking the winners of the contest based on who would be the best spokespeople for his super PAC’s agenda.

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Previously, the 53-year-old billionaire had claimed the winners would be chosen at random.

District Attorney Larry Krasner, a Democrat, called the process a scam “designed to actually influence a national election” and asked that it be shut down.

As it was, the judge ruled in favour of Musk and his America PAC.

Musk’s lawyer, Chris Gober, said the final two recipients before the presidential election would be announced in Arizona on Monday and Michigan on Tuesday.

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“The $1 million recipients are not chosen by chance,” said Gober.

“We know exactly who will be announced as the $1 million recipient today and tomorrow.”

‘They were scammed’

Chris Young, the director and treasurer of America PAC, testified that the recipients were vetted ahead of time, to “feel out their personality, [and] make sure they were someone whose values aligned” with the group.

Musk’s lawyers, defending the effort, called it “core political speech” given that participants were asked to sign a petition endorsing the US Constitution.

More than 1 million people from the seven battleground states – Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan – have registered for the sweepstakes by signing a petition saying they support the right to free speech and to bear arms, the first two amendments to the US Constitution.

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District Attorney Krasner has questioned how the PAC might use their data, which it will have on hand well past the election.

“They were scammed for their information,” Krasner said. “It has almost unlimited use.”

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA AND NEWS AGENCIES

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Trump or Harris? Gaza war drives many Arab and Muslim voters to Jill Stein

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Support for Green Party candidate grows as some voters stress the need to break away from Democrats and Republicans.

Abandon Harris
‘Abandon Harris’ campaign rally unfolds in Dearborn, Michigan, on November 2 [Ali Harb/Al Jazeera]

By Ali Harb

Published On 4 Nov 20244 Nov 2024

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Dearborn, Michigan – On a sunny but frigid afternoon, dozens of protesters stood on a street corner in the Detroit suburb of Dearborn and chanted against Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris as well as her Republican rival Donald Trump.

“Trump and Harris, you can’t hide, no votes for genocide,” a keffiyeh-clad young woman chanted on a bullhorn. The small but spirited crowd echoed her words.

If not Trump or Harris for the next United States president, then who?

The Abandon Harris campaign that organised the protest has endorsed Green Party candidate Jill Stein, demonstrating the growing disconnect that many Arabs and Muslims feel with both major parties over their support for Israel.

Stein has been gaining popularity in Arab and Muslim communities amid Israel’s brutal war on Gaza and Lebanon, public opinion polls show.

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While the Green Party candidate is extremely unlikely to win the presidency, her supporters view voting for her as a principled choice that can set a foundation for greater viability for third-party candidates in the future.

Hassan Abdel Salam, a co-founder of the Abandon Harris campaign, said more and more voters are adopting the group’s position of ditching the two major candidates and backing Stein.

“She best exemplifies our position against genocide,” Abdel Salam said of the Green Party candidate, who has been vocal in supporting Palestinian rights.

The strategy

Abandon Harris has been urging voters against supporting the vice president over her pledge to continue arming Israel amid the US ally’s offensives in Gaza and Lebanon, which have killed more than 46,000 people.

Abdel Salam praised Stein as courageous and willing to take on both major parties despite recent attacks, especially by Democrats.

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For the Abandon Harris campaign, backing Stein is not only about principles; it is part of a broader strategy.

“Our goal is to punish the vice president because of the genocide, to then take the blame for her defeat to send a signal to the political landscape that you should never have ignored us,” Abdel Salam told Al Jazeera.

In addition to the endorsement of the Abandon Harris campaign, Stein has won the backing of the American Arab and Muslim Political Action Committee (AMPAC), a Dearborn-based political group.

“After extensive dialogue with both the Harris and Trump campaigns, we found no commitment to addressing the urgent concerns of our community, particularly the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon,” the group said in a statement last month.

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“The need for a ceasefire remains paramount for Muslim and Arab American voters, yet neither campaign has offered a viable solution.”

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AMPAC added that it is backing Stein “based on her steadfast commitment to peace, justice, and a call for immediate ceasefires in conflict zones”.

With support for Stein on the rise in Michigan’s Arab and Muslim communities, where President Joe Biden won overwhelmingly in 2020, Democrats are noticing and pushing back.

Wissam Charafeddine
Jill Stein supporter Wissam Charafeddine. Support for the Green Party candidate has increased in Dearborn, where Arab Americans are angry at US support for Israel [Ali Harb/Al Jazeera]

Democrats target Stein

The Harris campaign released an advertisement aimed at Arab Americans in southeast Michigan that took a dig at third-party candidates.

In the commercial, Deputy Wayne County Executive Assad Turfe says Harris would help end the war in the Middle East as the camera zooms in on a cedar tree – Lebanon’s national symbol – hanging from his necklace.

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Turfe warns voters in the video that Trump would bring more chaos and suffering if elected. “We also know a vote for a third party is a vote for Trump,” he says.

Stein’s supporters, however, categorically reject that argument.

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Palestinian comedian and activist Amer Zahr, who is running for a school board seat in Dearborn, argued that Democrats should be grateful that Stein is on the ballot and slammed the argument that a vote for Stein is a vote for Trump as “paternalistic”.

“It assumes that if Stein wasn’t there, we’d be out there voting for you,” Zahr told Al Jazeera.

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“If it really were two parties and there were no other parties, I think most of the Arab Americans who are voting for Stein would vote for neither. And in fact, if there were really only two choices, a lot of the people who are voting for Stein right now out of anger for the Democratic Party might go for Trump.”

Zahr, who was on a shortlist of candidates that Stein considered for her vice presidential pick, also dismissed the argument that a vote for the Green Party would be “wasted” because it is unlikely to win.

“I mean news flash: Voters vote for people who speak to their issues,” he told Al Jazeera, praising Stein for standing up to Israel and running as an “openly anti-genocide” candidate.

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“Jill Stein, to me, is a noble vehicle to express our deep anger and the distrust and betrayal that we feel at the ballot box.”

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The Democratic National Committee (DNC) released a separate commercial last month also proclaiming that “a vote for Stein is really a vote for Trump”.

Stein has pushed back against that claim, slamming the Democrats’ attacks as a “fear campaign and smear campaign”.

She told Al Jazeera’s The Take podcast last week that the Democratic Party is coming after her instead of “addressing the issues like the genocide, which has lost Kamala Harris so many voters”.

‘I am sick of the two-party system’

While foreign policy may not be a top priority for the average US voter, numerous Arab and Muslim Americans interviewed by Al Jazeera over the past week said Israel’s assault on Lebanon and Gaza is their number one issue.

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And so, with both major-party presidential candidates voicing uncompromising support for Israel, some voters are looking to Stein to break away from the two parties and forge a new path.

“I am sick of the two-party system and their power play politics, where on both sides, they are unanimously agreeing on this bipartisan issue that they support Israel,” said Haneen Mahbuba, an Iraqi American voter.

With a keffiyeh-patterned scarf that says “Gaza” in Arabic around her neck, the bespectacled 30-year-old mother raised her voice in anger as she described the violence Israel is committing in Gaza and Lebanon with US support.

Mahbuba told Al Jazeera that she feels “empowered” by voting for Stein because she is not giving in to the “fearmongering” about the need to vote for the “lesser of two evils”. She added that it is Harris’s voters who are wasting their votes.

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“They’re giving away their vote when they vote for the Democratic Party that has continuously dismissed us, disregarded us, silenced us and seen us as less important,” Mahbuba said.

Jill Stein
Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein speaks during a rally in Dearborn, Michigan, on October 6 [File: Rebecca Cook/Reuters]

‘Indistinguishable’

Stein ran for president in 2012, 2016 and 2020, but she failed to make a major impression on the elections.

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However, Stein’s Arab and Muslim supporters say this year, the Green Party can put a dent in the results to show the power of voters who prioritise Palestinian human rights.

Wissam Charafeddine, an activist in the Detroit area, said backing Stein is the right choice both morally and strategically.

“I’m the type of voter who believes that voting should be based on values and not politics. This is the core of democracy,” he said.

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Charafeddine, who has voted for Stein in the past, added that Arab Americans are fortunate to be concentrated in a swing state where their votes are amplified.

“When we vote for Dr Jill Stein, we are not only voting [for] the right, moral platform that actually is most aligned with our values, interests, desires and priorities, but also it accounts for the Palestine vote and to the anti-genocide vote,” Charafeddine told Al Jazeera.

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Bottomline, advocates say the growing support for Stein shows that many Arab and Muslim voters have reached a tipping point with both the major parties’ support for Israel.

“Harris and Trump simply are indistinguishable to us because they passed a certain threshold that we cannot ever buy into the logic of lesser of two evils,” Abdel Salam told Al Jazeera.

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“These are two genocidal parties, and we cannot put our hand with either of them.”

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA


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