BBC
‘It’s rough out here’: Why Trump and Harris should listen to this mum of seven
2 days agoShareSave
Bernd Debusmann Jr
BBC News
Reporting fromLas Vegas, Nevada
When the sun sets over Las Vegas, Nicole Williams gets to work, serving drinks from behind the bar of an opulent hotel on the city’s infamous strip.
But life for Ms Williams, 45, and other service-industry workers who form the quiet backbone of Vegas’s booming economy, is far from luxurious.
“When you’re shopping for a big family like mine, it’s rough out here,” she told the BBC while shopping for groceries and taking children to appointments across town.
The mother of seven children, aged 10 months to 16, said she often fears buckling under the weight of the economy.
From sky-high prices on groceries to petrol, Ms Williams said she has had to cut back on vacations as well as on football and gymnastics lessons for her kids that would force her to stretch an already strained household budget.
“We haven’t been able to do the things we want to do,” she said. “I want a future for my kids.”
She is not alone. In dozens of interviews with Las Vegans who work in vital local industries from construction and casinos to restaurants and bars, low-wage workers from across the political spectrum told the BBC that kitchen-table issues – especially unaffordable housing and costly childcare – are what will determine how they vote on 5 November.
It’s these voters that Donald Trump and Vice-President Kamala Harris hope to win over in Nevada, a hotly contested battleground state in which the two remain neck-and-neck in the polls.
To court low-wage workers, Harris and Trump have laid out starkly different economic visions, including competing anti-poverty policies that could help shape the financial security of millions of families.
But victory in unpredictable Nevada – one of the key states which will determine who becomes the next president – will be won by just a tiny fraction of undecided voters there, political insiders say.
Data shows that about a third of the state’s voters consider themselves independent, with an August New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters showing that a slight majority of independents lean Republican (43%) compared to those who lean Democrat (39%).
“Nevada is not a blue state,” said Ted Pappageorge, the Secretary-Treasurer of Culinary Union Local 226, referring to the traditional colour of the Democratic Party (the Republicans are red).
The politically powerful group has endorsed Harris.
“We’re barely purple. If the election happened right now, Trump wins, we think,” he added.
‘Everything was cheaper’
Despite booming business, Nevada’s unemployment rate was the highest in the nation at 5.6% in September. In Las Vegas, home to three quarters of the population, the figure stood even higher at 5.9%.
The state was also hit particularly hard by the pandemic, when unemployment rose to around 30% – which State Democratic Chair Danielle Monroe-Moreno described as a sign that “when the country gets a cold, Nevada gets the flu”.
As the US economy has rebounded, however, Trump and Harris have pursued contrasting economic policies to alleviate some of the burdens on low-income workers. Harris vowed to expand many of the Covid-era policies President Joe Biden pursued when he took office in 2021, including healthcare and housing subsidies and reviving the enhanced $6,000 child care tax credit.
Trump has pushed the idea of renewing his 2017 tax cuts – which are set to expire next year – while imposing sweeping tariffs on foreign imports which he says will reduce poverty and boost economic growth.
“Five dollars isn’t $5 anymore, and $100 barely gets you any groceries,” said Fermin Gonzalez, an unemployed, Mexico-born former restaurant worker living in Las Vegas.
At 60 he fears he will have difficulty finding work again. “We used to be able to make money here. People are dissatisfied.”
To try to persuade voters who feel the same, both parties are relying on door-to-door campaigning efforts by allied get-out-the-vote groups.
The Culinary Union – the state’s largest union which represents a variety of occupations in hotels and the food service industry – has dozens of teams knocking on doors to drum up support for Harris and other Democratic candidates.
On a September afternoon, two members walked for hours in 40C (104F) heat in a modest North Las Vegas neighbourhood near the edge of town, where the city gives way to desert and craggy hills.
“Things are very hard. We feel it a lot,” said Olga Mexia, a Mexican immigrant and mother of five who works as a housekeeper at the Signature hotel on the strip.
“We’re paid so much less for everything. [Four years ago,] rent was less, groceries were less.”
“I had to have two jobs at one point to make it work. I’m campaigning for my family. Harris at least has a real plan,” Ms Mexia added, taking shelter from the sun under a tree while her teammate knocked on a door. “That’s the sort of thing people want to talk about.”
The battle over ‘tax on tips’
One economic proposal where both candidates overlap is ending taxes on tips – a concept that has found a receptive audience among Nevada’s service workers, more than half of whom are Latino.
More broadly, Latinos represent about 30% of the state’s population, along with 19% of its business owners. Given how close the election is likely to be in the state – and nationally – both parties increasingly see the mobilisation of Latino voters as key to their victory.
Ms Williams, the bartender – who says she’s “100% voting Trump” – makes $20 per hour but said tips make up her main income, bringing in as much as $250 on a good night. But even as she uses coupons, bargain hunts and budgets a weekly menu plan, it’s not enough.
Trump was the first to propose the idea at a Las Vegas rally in June. In August, he again highlighted the plan during a stop at a Mexican-Italian fusion restaurant located on the city’s west side.
The restaurant is owned by Javier Barajas, a Mexican immigrant who first crossed into the US illegally in 1978 and found himself in Las Vegas, almost by chance, after being separated from his travel companions.
Once a dishwasher, Mr Barajas is now a fixture of the community and owns a string of popular Mexican restaurants that employ an overwhelmingly Latino workforce of more than 500.
“My waiters make $12 – the minimum wage. I’m not saying that like it’s a lot. It’s hard. Every time they go to the gas station they end up spending $100,” he told the BBC, switching back and forth between English and Spanish in a corner of his restaurant.
Mr Barajas, an outspoken Trump supporter, says he believes an end to tax on tips would vastly help his workers with day-to-day expenses, while at the same time having minimal impact on him as an owner.
“That idea is interesting to people like them,” he said of his workers. “I completely understand why.”
Harris endorsed the no-tax-on-tips policy at her own Las Vegas rally in August, although in her case it’s paired with raising the federal minimum wage to $15.
Experts have cautioned that cutting taxes on tips may have minimal benefit on the US economy as a whole, and the Tax Foundation has estimated that any change could cost at least $107bn. Any change would also have to be passed by Congress.
‘I’m drowning’
For many working-class Las Vegans, inflation and rent pressure are compounded by childcare concerns.
Childcare in Nevada is more expensive than anywhere else in the US, with the average family spending nearly $26,000 on it a year – more than a third of their annual average income, according to a July report from the state’s Office of Workforce Innovation.
Harris has campaigned on a promise that child care costs would be capped at 7% of family income, along with a $6,000 child tax credit. Trump has so far offered no specific plans, although his running-mate Senator JD Vance has proposed raising the child tax credit to $5,000 from its current $2,000. Vance skipped a vote in August on a failed Senate bill that would have expanded the child tax credit for low-income families.
Among those feeling the pinch is Dominic Richmond, a 50-year-old single grandmother who cares for four young children with special needs – aged one, four, six and nine – as well as a mother with dementia who lives nearby.
Ms Richmond lives in a small two-bedroom apartment that costs her $1,600 per month. While she works part-time as a realtor – a job she said “leaves no money” – and 16-hours-a-week at an airline, she said that the combined costs of taking care of the children, rent and high prices have left her in dire straits.
“When you put it all together, it’s like a hurricane coming at you,” she said, wiping away tears at the offices of Children’s Cabinet, a local non-profit. “It’s just me doing all this. You can’t function in society on ‘just me’.”
Once a week, Ms Richmond heads to a crowded food bank, which she says are now mostly distributing self-heating military-style ration packs – which usually include a small main course, crackers or cheese, dessert and a powdered drink – to help feed her family. She grudgingly asks acquaintances for help – most often with no success.
Ms Richmond says she’s “not a political person” – she just wants a candidate who would help families like hers.
“I’m just hoping that when November gets here, that we will see somebody start to help where the help is needed,” she said. “By the end of this year, I’m probably going to be homeless. I’ve exhausted everything that I can.”
22 hours agoShareSave
Ben Bevington
BBC News, Washington
With just one day to go, the race for the White House is deadlocked – both at the national level and in the all-important battleground states.
The polls are so close, within the margin of error, that either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris could actually be two or three points better off – enough to win comfortably.
There is a compelling case to make for why each may have the edge when it comes to building a coalition of voters in the right places, and then ensuring they actually turn out.
Let’s start with the history-making possibility that a defeated president might be re-elected for the first time in 130 years.
Trump could win because…
1. He’s not in power
The economy is the number one issue for voters, and while unemployment is low and the stock market is booming, most Americans say they are struggling with higher prices every day.
Inflation hit levels not seen since the 1970s in the aftermath of the pandemic, giving Trump the chance to ask “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”
In 2024, voters around the world have several times thrown out the party in power, partly due to the high, post-Covid, cost of living. US voters also seem hungry for change.
https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/20094987/embed?auto=1
Only a quarter of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction the country is going in and two-thirds have a poor economic outlook.
Harris has tried to be the so-called change candidate, but as vice-president has struggled to distance herself from an unpopular Joe Biden.
2. He seems impervious to bad news
Despite the fallout from the 6 January 2021 riot at the US Capitol, a string of indictments and an unprecedented criminal conviction, Trump’s support has remained stable all year at 40% or above.
While Democrats and “Never-Trump” conservatives say he is unfit for office, most Republicans agree when Trump says he’s the victim of a political witch-hunt.
With both sides so dug in, he just needs to win over enough of the small slice of undecided voters without a fixed view of him.
3. His warnings on illegal immigration resonate
Beyond the state of the economy, elections are often decided by an issue with an emotional pull.
Democrats will hope it’s abortion, while Trump is betting it’s immigration.
After encounters at the border hit record levels under Biden, and the influx impacted states far from the border, polls suggest voters trust Trump more on the immigration – and that he’s doing much better with Latinos than in previous elections.
https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/19926257/embed?auto=1
4. A lot more people don’t have a degree than do
Trump’s appeal to voters who feel forgotten and left behind has transformed US politics by turning traditional Democratic constituencies like union workers into Republicans and making the protection of American industry by tariffs almost the norm.
If he drives up turnout in rural and suburban parts of swing states this can offset the loss of moderate, college-educated Republicans.
5. He’s seen as a strong man in an unstable world
Trump’s detractors say he undermines America’s alliances by cosying up to authoritarian leaders.
The former president sees his unpredictability as a strength, however, and points out that no major wars started when he was in the White House.
Many Americans are angry, for different reasons, with the US sending billions to Ukraine and Israel – and think America is weaker under Biden.
A majority of voters, especially men who Trump has courted through podcasts like Joe Rogan’s, see Trump as a stronger leader than Harris.
Harris could win because…
1. She’s not Trump
Despite Trump’s advantages, he remains a deeply polarising figure.
In 2020, he won a record number of votes for a Republican candidate, but was defeated because seven million more Americans turned out to support Biden.
This time, Harris is playing up the fear factor about a Trump return. She’s called him a “fascist” and a threat to democracy, while vowing to move on from “drama and conflict”.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll in July indicated that four in five Americans felt the country was spiralling out of control. Harris will be hoping voters – especially moderate Republicans and independents – see her as a candidate of stability.
2. She’s also not Biden
Democrats were facing near-certain defeat at the point Biden dropped out of the race. United in their desire to beat Trump, the party quickly rallied around Harris. With impressive speed from a standing start, she delivered a more forward-looking message that excited the base.
While Republicans have tied her to Biden’s more unpopular policies, Harris has rendered some of their Biden-specific attack lines redundant.
The clearest of these is age – polls consistently suggested voters had real concerns about Biden’s fitness for office. Now the race has flipped, and it is Trump who’s vying to become the oldest person to ever win the White House.
https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/20098216/embed?auto=1
3. She’s championed women’s rights
This is the first presidential election since the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade and the constitutional right to an abortion.
Voters concerned about protecting abortion rights overwhelmingly back Harris, and we’ve seen in past elections – notably the 2022 midterms – that the issue can drive turnout and have a real impact on the result.
This time around, 10 states, including the swing state Arizona, will have ballot initiatives asking voters how abortion should be regulated. This could boost turnout in Harris’s favour.
The historic nature of her bid to become the first female president may also strengthen her significant lead among women voters.
4. Her voters are more likely to show up
The groups Harris is polling more strongly with, such as the college-educated and older people, are more likely to vote.
Democrats ultimately perform better with high-turnout groups, while Trump has made gains with relatively low-turnout groups such as young men and those without college degrees.
Trump, for example, holds a huge lead among those who were registered but didn’t vote in 2020, according to a New York Times/Siena poll.
A key question, then, is whether they will show up this time.
5. She’s raised – and spent – more money
It’s no secret that American elections are expensive, and 2024 is on track to be the most expensive ever.
But when it comes to spending power – Harris is on top. She’s raised more since becoming the candidate in July than Trump has in the entire period since January 2023, according to a recent Financial Times analysis, which also noted that her campaign has spent almost twice as much on advertising.
This could play a role in a razor-tight race that will ultimately be decided by voters in swing states currently being bombarded by political ads.
20 hours agoShareSave
Americans are choosing their next president, in a contest being closely watched around the world.
The race is exceptionally close and either Vice-President Kamala Harris or former president Donald Trump could win.
Voters also selecting members of Congress, politicians who play a key part in passing laws that can have a profound effect on life in the US.
When is the US presidential election?
The 2024 election is on Tuesday, 5 November 2024.
Ahead of election day, tens of millions of voters have taken part in early voting events across the US.
The winner will serve a term of four years in the White House, starting in January 2025.
On the world stage, the US leader has considerable freedom to represent the country abroad.
Within the US, the president has the power to pass some laws on their own but he or she must mostly work with Congress to pass legislation.
Who are the candidates for president?
Former president Donald Trump is representing the Republican Party. He won the party’s support with a massive lead over his rivals.
Trump chose Ohio senator JD Vance to be his vice-presidential running mate.
Kamala Harris, the current vice-president, is the candidate for the Democratic Party. She joined the race after President Joe Biden dropped out and no other Democrats stood against her.
Her running mate for vice-president is Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.
There are also some independent candidates running for president. One of the most prominent was Robert F Kennedy Jr, but he suspended his campaign in August and backed Trump.
- How Donald Trump came back from the political abyss
- What Harris’s years as a prosecutor reveal about who she is now
What do Democrats and Republicans stand for?
The Democrats are the liberal political party, known for supporting civil rights, a social safety net and measures to address climate change.
In the 2024 election, issues highlighted by Harris include tackling the cost-of-living crisis and supporting abortion rights.
The Republicans are the conservative political party. They have stood for lower taxes, shrinking the size of the government and gun rights.
Issues Trump has campaigned on include tackling illegal immigration and ending inflation to “make America affordable again”.
How does the US presidential election work?
The winner is not the person who gets the most votes overall.
Instead, both candidates compete to win contests held across the 50 states.
Each state has a certain number of so-called electoral college votes, partly based on population. There are a total of 538 up for grabs and the winner is the candidate that gets 270 or more.
All but two states have a winner-takes-all rule, so whichever candidate has the highest number of votes is awarded all of its electoral college votes.
Most states lean heavily towards one party or the other, so the focus is on about seven states where either of them could win. These are known as the battleground or swing states.
It is possible for a candidate to win the most votes nationally – like Hillary Clinton did in 2016 – but still be defeated.
Who can vote in the US presidential election?
Most US citizens aged 18 or over are eligible to vote.
Each state has its own voter registration process and deadline.
Who else is being elected in November?
All of the attention will be on who wins the presidency, but voters will also be choosing new members of Congress – where laws are passed – when they fill in their ballots.
Congress consists of the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats are up for election, and the Senate, where 34 seats are being contested.
Republicans currently control the House, which initiates spending plans. Democrats are in charge of the Senate, which votes on key appointments in government.
These two chambers pass laws and can act as a check on White House plans if the controlling party in either chamber disagrees with the president.
When will we know who has won the election?
Usually the winner is declared on the night of the election, but in 2020 it took a few days to count all the votes.
The period after the election is known as the transition, if there is a change of president.
This gives the new administration time to appoint cabinet ministers and make plans for the new term.
The president is officially sworn into office in January in a ceremony known as the inauguration, held on the steps of the Capitol building in Washington DC.
5 hours agoShareSave
Sam Cabral
BBC News, Washington
American voters go to the polls on 5 November to choose their next president.
US election results have sometimes been declared within hours of the polls closing, but this year’s tight contest could mean a longer wait.
When is the 2024 presidential election result expected?
In some presidential races the victor has been named late on election night, or early the next morning. This time, the knife-edge race in many states could mean media outlets wait longer before projecting who has won.
Democrat Kamala Harris, the current vice-president, and Republican Donald Trump, the former president, have been running neck-and-neck for weeks.
Narrow victories could also mean recounts. In the key swing state of Pennsylvania, for example, a state-wide recount would be required if there’s a half-percentage-point difference between the votes cast for the winner and loser. In 2020, the margin was just over 1.1 percentage points.
0:53BBC’s Sumi Somaskanda explains when a new president will be announced
Legal challenges are also possible. More than 100 pre-election lawsuits have already been filed, including challenges to voter eligibility and voter roll management, by Republicans.
Other scenarios that could cause delays include any election-related disorder, particularly at polling locations.
On the other hand, vote-counting has sped up in some areas, including the crucial state of Michigan, and far fewer votes will be cast by mail than in the last election, which was during the Covid pandemic.
When have previous presidential election results been announced?
The 2020 election took place on Tuesday 3 November. However, US TV networks did not declare Joe Biden the winner until late morning on Saturday 7 November, after the result in Pennsylvania became clearer.
In other recent elections, voters have had a much shorter wait.
In 2016, when Trump won the presidency, he was declared the winner shortly before 03:00 EST (08:00 GMT) the day after the election.
In 2012, when Barack Obama secured a second term, his victory was projected before midnight on polling day itself.
However, the 2000 election between George W Bush and Al Gore was a notable exception.
The vote was held on 7 November, but the two campaigns went to war over a tight contest in Florida and the race was not decided until 12 December. The US Supreme Court voted to end the state’s recount process, which kept Bush in place as winner and handed him the White House.
What are the key states to watch in 2024?
Across the country, the first polls will close at 18:00 EST (23:00 GMT) on Tuesday evening and the last polls will close at 01:00 EST (06:00 GMT) early on Wednesday.
But this race is expected to come down to results from seven swing states. These are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Polls close at different times in different regions. State-specific rules could prolong counting in some states, while other states may report partial figures moments after the last in-person vote is cast. Also, some absentee and mail-in ballots, including votes by members of the military and Americans living overseas, are normally among the last to be counted.
Georgia – Polls close in the Peach State at19:00 EST (00:00 GMT). Early and mail-in ballots will be counted first, ahead of in-person votes. Georgia’s top election official estimates that about 75% of votes will be counted within the first two hours, with a full tally possible expected by later in the night.
North Carolina – Polls close thirty minutes after Georgia. North Carolina’s results are expected to be announced before the end of the night, however, complications may arise in areas that were hit by a hurricane in September.
Pennsylvania – Voting ends at 20:00 EST (01:00 GMT) in the Keystone State – the crown jewel of all the swing states in this election cycle. Like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania does not allow counting to begin until the morning of the election, leading to an expected delay in results. Experts agree that it may take at least 24 hours before enough votes are counted for a winner to emerge.
Michigan – Voting concludes at 21:00 EST (02:00 GMT) in the Wolverine State. Michigan allows officials to begin counting votes one week before election day, but they are not allowed to reveal the results until these polls shut. Michigan’s top election official has said that a result should not be expected until the “end of the day” on Wednesday.
Wisconsin – Results should come in shortly after polls close at 21:00 EST for smaller counties. However, it often takes longer for major populations centres to tabulate votes, leading experts to predict that the state won’t have a result until at least Wednesday.
Arizona – Initial results could come as early as22:00 EST (03:00 GMT), however, they won’t paint a complete picture. The state’s largest county says not to expect results until early Wednesday morning. On top of that, postal ballots dropped off on election day could take up to 13 days to count, according to officials in Maricopa County, the largest district in the state.
Nevada – Votes here could also take days to count, because the state allows mail-in ballots to qualify as long as they were sent on election day and arrive no later than 9 November.
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