BBC
Harris or Trump? What Chinese people want from US election
2 days agoShareSave
Laura Bicker
China correspondent, Beijing
In China, people are following the US election with keen interest and some anxiety. They fear what could happen next at home and abroad, whoever wins the White House.
“None of us wants to see a war,” says Mr Xiang, as the music in the park reaches a crescendo and a nearby dancer elegantly spins his partner.
He has come to Ritan Park to learn dance with other seniors.
They gather here regularly, just a few hundred metres from the Beijing home of the American ambassador in China.
In addition to new dance moves, the looming US election is also on their minds.
It comes at a pivotal time between the two superpowers, with tensions over Taiwan, trade and international affairs running high.
“I am worried that Sino-US relations are getting tense,” says Mr Xiang who’s in his 60s. “Peace is what we want,” he adds.
A crowd has gathered to listen to this conversation. Most are reluctant to give their full names in a country where it is permissible to talk about the US president, but being critical of their own leader could get them in trouble.
They say they are worried about war – not just about a conflict between Washington and Beijing but an escalation of current wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.
That is why Mr Meng, in his 70s, hopes Donald Trump will win the election.
“Although he imposes economic sanctions on China, he does not wish to start or fight a war. Mr Biden starts more wars so more ordinary people dislike him. It is Mr Biden who supports Ukraine’s war and both Russia and Ukraine suffer great loss from the war,” he said.
Some sisters recording a dance routine for their social media page chip in. “Donald Trump said in the debate that he will end the war in Ukraine 24 hours after he takes office,” says one.
“About Harris, I know little about her, we think she follows the same route as President Biden who supports war.”
Their opinions echo a key message being propagated on Chinese state media.
China has called on the international community to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza while aligning itself with what it describes as its “Arab brothers” in the Middle East and has been quick to blame the US for its unwavering support of Israel.
On Ukraine, Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the United Nations that China was playing a “constructive role” as he accused Washington of “exploiting the situation for selfish gain”.
While most analysts believe Beijing does not have a favourite in this race for the White House, many would agree that Kamala Harris is an unknown quantity to Chinese people and the country’s leaders.
- Listen to Laura Bicker discuss China/US on The Global Story
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But some believe she will be more stable than Trump when it comes to one of the biggest flashpoints between the US and China – Taiwan.
“I don’t like Trump. I don’t think there is a good future between the US and China – there are too many problems, the global economy, and also the Taiwan problem,” says a father of a four-year-old boy in the park for a family day out.
He fears their differences over Taiwan could eventually lead to conflict.
“I don’t want it. I don’t want my son to go to the military,” he says as the young boy pleads to go back on the slide.
China claims the self-governing island of Taiwan as its own and President Xi Jinping has said “reunification is inevitable”, vowing to retake it by force if necessary.
The US maintains official ties with Beijing and recognises it as the only Chinese government under its “One China policy” but it also remains Taiwan’s most significant international supporter.
Washington is bound by law to provide Taiwan with defensive weapons and Joe Biden has said that the US would defend Taiwan militarily, breaking with a stance known as strategic ambiguity.
Harris has not gone that far. Instead, when asked in a recent interview she stated a “commitment to security and prosperity for all nations”.
Donald Trump is instead focused on a deal – not diplomacy. He has called on Taiwan to pay for its protection.
“Taiwan took our chip business from us. I mean, how stupid are we? They’re immensely wealthy,” he said in a recent interview. “Taiwan should pay us for defence.”
One of their biggest worries when it comes to the former US president is that he has also made it clear he plans to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese goods.
This is the last thing many businesses in China want right now as the country is trying to manufacture enough goods to export itself out of an economic downturn.
Ministers in China bristle with contempt at US-led trade tariffs which were first imposed by Donald Trump.
President Biden has also levied tariffs, targeting Chinese electric vehicles and solar panels. Beijing believes these moves are an attempt to curb its rise as a global economic power.
“I don’t think it will do any good to the US to impose tariffs on China,” says Mr Xiang, echoing the sentiments of many we met. The tariffs will hit the US people, he adds, and increase costs for ordinary people.
Many of the younger generation, while patriotic, also look towards the US for trends and culture – and that, perhaps more than any diplomatic mission, has power, too.
In the park, Lily and Anna, aged 20 and 22, who get their news from TikTok, echo some of the national messages of pride spread by Chinese state media when it comes to this competitive relationship.
“Our country is a very prosperous and powerful country,” they say, dressed in their national costumes. They love China, they said, although they also adore the Avengers and particularly Captain America.
Taylor Swift is on their playlists, too.
Others like 17-year-old Lucy hope to study in America one day.
As she cycles on an exercise bike, newly installed in the park, she dreams about visiting Universal Studios one day – after her graduation.
Lucy says she is excited to see there is a female candidate. “Harris’s candidacy marks an important step forward for gender equality, and it’s encouraging to see her as a presidential candidate.”
The People’s Republic of China has never had a female leader and not a single woman currently sits on the 24-member team known as the Politburo that comprises most senior members of the Chinese Communist Party.
Lucy is also worried about the intense competition between the two countries and believes the best way for China and the United States to improve their relationship is to have more people-to-people exchanges.
Both sides have vowed to work towards this, and yet the number of US students studying in China has fallen from around 15,000 in 2011 to 800.
Xi hopes to open the door for 50,000 American students to come to China in the next five years. But in a recent interview with the BBC, the US ambassador to China, Nicholas Burns, accused parts of the Chinese government of not taking this pledge seriously.
He said that, on dozens of occasions, security forces or a government ministry had prevented Chinese citizens from participating in public diplomacy run by the US.
On the other side, Chinese students and academics have reported being unfairly targeted by US border officials.
Lucy, however, remains optimistic that she will be able to travel to America one day, to promote Chinese culture. And, as the music strikes up nearby, she urges Americans to visit and experience China.
“We may be a little bit reserved sometimes and not as outgoing or as extrovert as US people, but we are welcoming,” she says as she heads off to join her family.
BBC photographs by Xiqing Wang
22 hours agoShareSave
Ben Bevington
BBC News, Washington
With just one day to go, the race for the White House is deadlocked – both at the national level and in the all-important battleground states.
The polls are so close, within the margin of error, that either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris could actually be two or three points better off – enough to win comfortably.
There is a compelling case to make for why each may have the edge when it comes to building a coalition of voters in the right places, and then ensuring they actually turn out.
Let’s start with the history-making possibility that a defeated president might be re-elected for the first time in 130 years.
Trump could win because…
1. He’s not in power
The economy is the number one issue for voters, and while unemployment is low and the stock market is booming, most Americans say they are struggling with higher prices every day.
Inflation hit levels not seen since the 1970s in the aftermath of the pandemic, giving Trump the chance to ask “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”
In 2024, voters around the world have several times thrown out the party in power, partly due to the high, post-Covid, cost of living. US voters also seem hungry for change.
https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/20094987/embed?auto=1
Only a quarter of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction the country is going in and two-thirds have a poor economic outlook.
Harris has tried to be the so-called change candidate, but as vice-president has struggled to distance herself from an unpopular Joe Biden.
2. He seems impervious to bad news
Despite the fallout from the 6 January 2021 riot at the US Capitol, a string of indictments and an unprecedented criminal conviction, Trump’s support has remained stable all year at 40% or above.
While Democrats and “Never-Trump” conservatives say he is unfit for office, most Republicans agree when Trump says he’s the victim of a political witch-hunt.
With both sides so dug in, he just needs to win over enough of the small slice of undecided voters without a fixed view of him.
3. His warnings on illegal immigration resonate
Beyond the state of the economy, elections are often decided by an issue with an emotional pull.
Democrats will hope it’s abortion, while Trump is betting it’s immigration.
After encounters at the border hit record levels under Biden, and the influx impacted states far from the border, polls suggest voters trust Trump more on the immigration – and that he’s doing much better with Latinos than in previous elections.
https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/19926257/embed?auto=1
4. A lot more people don’t have a degree than do
Trump’s appeal to voters who feel forgotten and left behind has transformed US politics by turning traditional Democratic constituencies like union workers into Republicans and making the protection of American industry by tariffs almost the norm.
If he drives up turnout in rural and suburban parts of swing states this can offset the loss of moderate, college-educated Republicans.
5. He’s seen as a strong man in an unstable world
Trump’s detractors say he undermines America’s alliances by cosying up to authoritarian leaders.
The former president sees his unpredictability as a strength, however, and points out that no major wars started when he was in the White House.
Many Americans are angry, for different reasons, with the US sending billions to Ukraine and Israel – and think America is weaker under Biden.
A majority of voters, especially men who Trump has courted through podcasts like Joe Rogan’s, see Trump as a stronger leader than Harris.
Harris could win because…
1. She’s not Trump
Despite Trump’s advantages, he remains a deeply polarising figure.
In 2020, he won a record number of votes for a Republican candidate, but was defeated because seven million more Americans turned out to support Biden.
This time, Harris is playing up the fear factor about a Trump return. She’s called him a “fascist” and a threat to democracy, while vowing to move on from “drama and conflict”.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll in July indicated that four in five Americans felt the country was spiralling out of control. Harris will be hoping voters – especially moderate Republicans and independents – see her as a candidate of stability.
2. She’s also not Biden
Democrats were facing near-certain defeat at the point Biden dropped out of the race. United in their desire to beat Trump, the party quickly rallied around Harris. With impressive speed from a standing start, she delivered a more forward-looking message that excited the base.
While Republicans have tied her to Biden’s more unpopular policies, Harris has rendered some of their Biden-specific attack lines redundant.
The clearest of these is age – polls consistently suggested voters had real concerns about Biden’s fitness for office. Now the race has flipped, and it is Trump who’s vying to become the oldest person to ever win the White House.
https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/20098216/embed?auto=1
3. She’s championed women’s rights
This is the first presidential election since the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade and the constitutional right to an abortion.
Voters concerned about protecting abortion rights overwhelmingly back Harris, and we’ve seen in past elections – notably the 2022 midterms – that the issue can drive turnout and have a real impact on the result.
This time around, 10 states, including the swing state Arizona, will have ballot initiatives asking voters how abortion should be regulated. This could boost turnout in Harris’s favour.
The historic nature of her bid to become the first female president may also strengthen her significant lead among women voters.
4. Her voters are more likely to show up
The groups Harris is polling more strongly with, such as the college-educated and older people, are more likely to vote.
Democrats ultimately perform better with high-turnout groups, while Trump has made gains with relatively low-turnout groups such as young men and those without college degrees.
Trump, for example, holds a huge lead among those who were registered but didn’t vote in 2020, according to a New York Times/Siena poll.
A key question, then, is whether they will show up this time.
5. She’s raised – and spent – more money
It’s no secret that American elections are expensive, and 2024 is on track to be the most expensive ever.
But when it comes to spending power – Harris is on top. She’s raised more since becoming the candidate in July than Trump has in the entire period since January 2023, according to a recent Financial Times analysis, which also noted that her campaign has spent almost twice as much on advertising.
This could play a role in a razor-tight race that will ultimately be decided by voters in swing states currently being bombarded by political ads.
20 hours agoShareSave
Americans are choosing their next president, in a contest being closely watched around the world.
The race is exceptionally close and either Vice-President Kamala Harris or former president Donald Trump could win.
Voters also selecting members of Congress, politicians who play a key part in passing laws that can have a profound effect on life in the US.
When is the US presidential election?
The 2024 election is on Tuesday, 5 November 2024.
Ahead of election day, tens of millions of voters have taken part in early voting events across the US.
The winner will serve a term of four years in the White House, starting in January 2025.
On the world stage, the US leader has considerable freedom to represent the country abroad.
Within the US, the president has the power to pass some laws on their own but he or she must mostly work with Congress to pass legislation.
Who are the candidates for president?
Former president Donald Trump is representing the Republican Party. He won the party’s support with a massive lead over his rivals.
Trump chose Ohio senator JD Vance to be his vice-presidential running mate.
Kamala Harris, the current vice-president, is the candidate for the Democratic Party. She joined the race after President Joe Biden dropped out and no other Democrats stood against her.
Her running mate for vice-president is Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.
There are also some independent candidates running for president. One of the most prominent was Robert F Kennedy Jr, but he suspended his campaign in August and backed Trump.
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What do Democrats and Republicans stand for?
The Democrats are the liberal political party, known for supporting civil rights, a social safety net and measures to address climate change.
In the 2024 election, issues highlighted by Harris include tackling the cost-of-living crisis and supporting abortion rights.
The Republicans are the conservative political party. They have stood for lower taxes, shrinking the size of the government and gun rights.
Issues Trump has campaigned on include tackling illegal immigration and ending inflation to “make America affordable again”.
How does the US presidential election work?
The winner is not the person who gets the most votes overall.
Instead, both candidates compete to win contests held across the 50 states.
Each state has a certain number of so-called electoral college votes, partly based on population. There are a total of 538 up for grabs and the winner is the candidate that gets 270 or more.
All but two states have a winner-takes-all rule, so whichever candidate has the highest number of votes is awarded all of its electoral college votes.
Most states lean heavily towards one party or the other, so the focus is on about seven states where either of them could win. These are known as the battleground or swing states.
It is possible for a candidate to win the most votes nationally – like Hillary Clinton did in 2016 – but still be defeated.
Who can vote in the US presidential election?
Most US citizens aged 18 or over are eligible to vote.
Each state has its own voter registration process and deadline.
Who else is being elected in November?
All of the attention will be on who wins the presidency, but voters will also be choosing new members of Congress – where laws are passed – when they fill in their ballots.
Congress consists of the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats are up for election, and the Senate, where 34 seats are being contested.
Republicans currently control the House, which initiates spending plans. Democrats are in charge of the Senate, which votes on key appointments in government.
These two chambers pass laws and can act as a check on White House plans if the controlling party in either chamber disagrees with the president.
When will we know who has won the election?
Usually the winner is declared on the night of the election, but in 2020 it took a few days to count all the votes.
The period after the election is known as the transition, if there is a change of president.
This gives the new administration time to appoint cabinet ministers and make plans for the new term.
The president is officially sworn into office in January in a ceremony known as the inauguration, held on the steps of the Capitol building in Washington DC.
5 hours agoShareSave
Sam Cabral
BBC News, Washington
American voters go to the polls on 5 November to choose their next president.
US election results have sometimes been declared within hours of the polls closing, but this year’s tight contest could mean a longer wait.
When is the 2024 presidential election result expected?
In some presidential races the victor has been named late on election night, or early the next morning. This time, the knife-edge race in many states could mean media outlets wait longer before projecting who has won.
Democrat Kamala Harris, the current vice-president, and Republican Donald Trump, the former president, have been running neck-and-neck for weeks.
Narrow victories could also mean recounts. In the key swing state of Pennsylvania, for example, a state-wide recount would be required if there’s a half-percentage-point difference between the votes cast for the winner and loser. In 2020, the margin was just over 1.1 percentage points.
0:53BBC’s Sumi Somaskanda explains when a new president will be announced
Legal challenges are also possible. More than 100 pre-election lawsuits have already been filed, including challenges to voter eligibility and voter roll management, by Republicans.
Other scenarios that could cause delays include any election-related disorder, particularly at polling locations.
On the other hand, vote-counting has sped up in some areas, including the crucial state of Michigan, and far fewer votes will be cast by mail than in the last election, which was during the Covid pandemic.
When have previous presidential election results been announced?
The 2020 election took place on Tuesday 3 November. However, US TV networks did not declare Joe Biden the winner until late morning on Saturday 7 November, after the result in Pennsylvania became clearer.
In other recent elections, voters have had a much shorter wait.
In 2016, when Trump won the presidency, he was declared the winner shortly before 03:00 EST (08:00 GMT) the day after the election.
In 2012, when Barack Obama secured a second term, his victory was projected before midnight on polling day itself.
However, the 2000 election between George W Bush and Al Gore was a notable exception.
The vote was held on 7 November, but the two campaigns went to war over a tight contest in Florida and the race was not decided until 12 December. The US Supreme Court voted to end the state’s recount process, which kept Bush in place as winner and handed him the White House.
What are the key states to watch in 2024?
Across the country, the first polls will close at 18:00 EST (23:00 GMT) on Tuesday evening and the last polls will close at 01:00 EST (06:00 GMT) early on Wednesday.
But this race is expected to come down to results from seven swing states. These are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Polls close at different times in different regions. State-specific rules could prolong counting in some states, while other states may report partial figures moments after the last in-person vote is cast. Also, some absentee and mail-in ballots, including votes by members of the military and Americans living overseas, are normally among the last to be counted.
Georgia – Polls close in the Peach State at19:00 EST (00:00 GMT). Early and mail-in ballots will be counted first, ahead of in-person votes. Georgia’s top election official estimates that about 75% of votes will be counted within the first two hours, with a full tally possible expected by later in the night.
North Carolina – Polls close thirty minutes after Georgia. North Carolina’s results are expected to be announced before the end of the night, however, complications may arise in areas that were hit by a hurricane in September.
Pennsylvania – Voting ends at 20:00 EST (01:00 GMT) in the Keystone State – the crown jewel of all the swing states in this election cycle. Like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania does not allow counting to begin until the morning of the election, leading to an expected delay in results. Experts agree that it may take at least 24 hours before enough votes are counted for a winner to emerge.
Michigan – Voting concludes at 21:00 EST (02:00 GMT) in the Wolverine State. Michigan allows officials to begin counting votes one week before election day, but they are not allowed to reveal the results until these polls shut. Michigan’s top election official has said that a result should not be expected until the “end of the day” on Wednesday.
Wisconsin – Results should come in shortly after polls close at 21:00 EST for smaller counties. However, it often takes longer for major populations centres to tabulate votes, leading experts to predict that the state won’t have a result until at least Wednesday.
Arizona – Initial results could come as early as22:00 EST (03:00 GMT), however, they won’t paint a complete picture. The state’s largest county says not to expect results until early Wednesday morning. On top of that, postal ballots dropped off on election day could take up to 13 days to count, according to officials in Maricopa County, the largest district in the state.
Nevada – Votes here could also take days to count, because the state allows mail-in ballots to qualify as long as they were sent on election day and arrive no later than 9 November.
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