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AP VoteCast: How Americans voted in 2020, and what it could mean for 2024

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President Joe Biden speaks to the media before boarding Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Ben Curtis)Read More

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Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris boards Air Force Two at Charlotte Douglas International Airport, Saturday, October 5, 2024, in Charlotte, N.C., after a briefing on the damage from Hurricane Helene. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump gestures after speaking at an event marking one year since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, Monday, Oct. 7, 2024, in Miami. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

BY  JOSH BOAK, SHELLY CHENG, PARKER KAUFMANN, HUMERA LODHI AND PABLO BARRIA URENDAUpdated 6:06 PM GMT+6, October 15, 2024Share

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WASHINGTON (AP) — As Election Day draws nearer, Democrat Kamala Harris is trying to maintain a diverse coalition of voters who were driven four years ago by their fierce opposition to Republican Donald Trump and anxiety over a deadly pandemic.

The former president, meanwhile, is looking to deepen gains among groups, such as men without college degrees, with whom he’s already shown strength, and erode Harris’ support among Hispanic Americans and other key demographics.

AP VoteCast, a sweeping survey of the electorate, tells the story of how Democrat Joe Biden won and Trump lost in 2020, and what those results could mean for the 2024 election. We’ll know whether the candidates were able to expand their coalitions — or build new ones — when results from the 2024 VoteCast survey are released on Election Day.

Biden’s victory four years ago was decisive but not overwhelming, leaving Harris with a challenge — she either needs to match his broad base of support, or shape a new winning coalition of her own.

https://interactives.ap.org/election-results/customers/layouts/organization-layouts/published/49221/15814.html

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